During the Covid-19 pandemic, healthcare became a top priority for most governments, as hospitals rushed to care for the sick and the pharmaceutical industry worked to develop and distribute vaccines and treatments at an unprecedented speed. As the immediate threat begins to recede, many countries are faced with a backlog of non-Covid medical procedures, diagnoses, and treatments. However, the economic recovery that they were relying on to restore healthcare funding is uncertain due to the war in Ukraine, a surge in inflation, and the need to tighten monetary policy.

According to the OOSGA, global health spending is expected to sharply slow down in 2022, despite the rising demand for medical care. Over the five-year forecast period from 2022-2026, health spending growth will remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels in nominal terms, averaging 5.1% per year in US dollar terms, and the pharmaceutical industry will grow by an average of 4.9% per year. However, higher input costs will be a significant factor in both cases, and we estimate that global healthcare spending will decrease in real terms in 2022-23 before recovering later in the forecast period. Additionally, pharmaceutical companies may face pressure to cut prices, and debates over intellectual property rights may increase.

Unless dangerous new variants emerge, the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to become endemic, and China will face the challenge of balancing its zero-covid policy in 2023, which could lead to a surge in cases. The risk of another pandemic remains high, particularly as international travel resumes. The risk from antimicrobial resistance will also remain a significant concern. However, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will once again become a central focus in healthcare policy due to ageing populations.